The Japan Recording-Media Industries Association (JRIA) recently
announced its three year forecast for the global demand and production of recording media. According to the forcast, the demand for data
CD-R's will fall over the next few years. However, the demand for write-once DVD's is on the rise and is expected to exceed that of
CD-R's by 2009.
Global demand for Write-once DVDs - Global demand for write-once DVDs in 2008 will increase by
12% from 2007 to 6.195 million units and 2% in 2010 to 6.649 million units. Although the growth rate will fall into single digits in
2009, demand will continue to expand. Write-once DVDs are the easiest-to-use media for PC and DVD recorder users and they are
inexpensive, making them highly appealing. In addition, the expansion of the terrestrial digital broadcasts in Japan is driving the
demand for CPRM media that can be used for copy controlled digital television broadcasts, and it is expected that the addition of
"Dubbing 10" function to DVD recorders will further stimulate the demand. The forecast of demand declining in 2010 takes into
consideration the appearance of blue laser disks.
Global demand for Re-writable DVDs - Global demand for re-writable DVDs
will increase by 6% in 2008 to 487 million units but will decrease by 3% in 2010 to 476 million units, and is expected to continue
decreasing after 2010. The mainstream re-writable DVDs are still 2X and 4X speed, and there is a substantial difference from write-once
DVDs, which are maily 16X speed. There are also strong indications that competition with other storage media including USB memory devices
will decrease re-writable DVDs demand for PC applications.
The JRIA also expects that the demand for blue laser
(Blu-ray and HD DVD) will reach 24 million units in 2008 and 215 million units in 2010. If you'd like to read more, the entire forcast
can be found here.
