when will cfitz pass eliminator in total posts ?

[MediumRare]

Today, the Ides of March, is historically a time of decision, a time to remove potential despots from their prominent place in the forum.

Far too long has eliminator been undisputed No. 2 in total posts, but yon cfitz has a lean and hungry look.

The diagram shows some background material based on a limited sample with least square fits of some posting rates. If these rates continue, the "magic moment" will be somewhere around 25-26 March.



Some further important dates this year projected from the March trends:

• 26 Aug. cfitz passes Ian (7 p.m. UTC)
• 17 July BuddhaTB passes eliminator
• 14 Aug. dodecahedron passes eliminator

This information is, of course, based on strict scientific principles under due consideration of uncertainties and with proper regard to the gravity of the question.

G

[cfitz]

LOL Someone has too much time on his hands, but I'll leave it for the readers to decide for themselves who that person is. I can think of several candidates, myself not excluded...

Very impressive chart. I can't believe you have actually been tracking all this data. As for your prediction extrapolated from the trends you have identified, all I can say is we all know that the past is no predictor of the future. Heck, NASDAQ would probably be at 1,000,000 by now if trends had continued...

cfitz

[BuddhaTB]

Very impressive. I think cfitz will pass up eliminator sometime in April. Even though I think elim might turn on the afterburners once cfitz starts getting close. I'll be looking forward to that July date for myself, but I have been posting less and less on this forum than pre-2003.

I just hope this post doesn't encourage people to become "post-whores"

[dodecahedron]

LOL
really funny, i was actually thinking the exact same thing a couple of days ago...
way to go, cfitz!

what really surprised me was to see my name up there in Medium's post...i've no aspirations to pass eliminator...nor do i think it likely to happen...

very nice graph work...and the least sq. too

by the way, i voted "what is a cfitz"...

[MediumRare]

LOL Someone has too much time on his hands, but I'll leave it for the readers to decide for themselves who that person is. I can think of several candidates, myself not excluded...

Very impressive chart. I can't believe you have actually been tracking all this data. As for your prediction extrapolated from the trends you have identified, all I can say is we all know that the past is no predictor of the future. Heck, NASDAQ would probably be at 1,000,000 by now if trends had continued...

cfitz

Data gathering isn't that difficult- the member list has an option "Top Ten Posters", cut and paste into Excel during coffee break, and voilà- trend data. Linear extrapolation is, of course, a very poor basis for any prediction. I added a time of day (more "precisely": 19:43) for one "prediction" to emphasize this. But since this is such a serious subject- who cares? (other than maybe "post-whores").

G

[Ian]

MediumRare thats one of the funniest things I've seen in a while.

I think the correct term is "post-man-whores." And no.. not "postman-whores."

[cfitz]

Linear extrapolation is, of course, a very poor basis for any prediction. I added a time of day (more "precisely": 19:43) for one "prediction" to emphasize this.

Yes, I noticed and enjoyed the "precision" of the 26 August at 7 p.m. UTC prediction. I'm glad that with further analysis you have been able to refine the estimate to 19:43.

cfitz

[aviationwiz]

This is one of the worst threads I have ever seen in my life.

[MediumRare]

This is one of the worst threads I have ever seen in my life.

It gets a lot worse. After all, this is the beer garden.

Today is the second day of spring- it's a beautiful day here in Frankfurt, clear blue sky, brilliant sunshine but cool (10° C).
There are (expected) 100,000 Kurds from all over western Europe here celebrating New Year and protesting against the war. Helicopters are circling over downtown. Bombs are falling on Baghdad. Is there anything more important than posting rates ? [/irony]

I consulted some experts about the title subject. They cast their answer in somewhat obscure terms:

Thrice the brinded cat hath mew'd,
Thrice and once the hedge pig whined.
Harpier cries, "'Tis time, 'tis time".

Asked as to how they arrived at this statement, I got an answer that sounded more like a recipe, but maybe modern demoscopic methods have to take this into consideration:

Round about the cauldron go;
In the poison'd entrails throw.
Toad that under cold stone
Days and nights has thirty-one
Sweltered venom sleeping got-
Boil thou first i' the charmed pot.
Double, double, toil and trouble,
Fire burn and cauldron bubble.

This is all too much for the limited brain of a poor physicist, so I went back to least square fits and refined the prognosis given last week:



Here some new dates:

• 24 Mar. cfitz passes eliminator (11:30 a.m. UTC)
• 17 Aug. cfitz passes Ian
• 29 July BuddhaTB passes eliminator
• 2 Oct. dodecahedron passes eliminator
• (new) 5 Feb. cfitz passes BuddhaTB

The first prediction was amazingly stable over the last few days, but neglects the inhomogeneity of posting rates- the time is 5:30 a.m. EST. More probable is +- 12 hours. I'll have to leave it to others (e.g. dodecahedron who is a night owl) to log the precise time.

G

[dodecahedron]

MediumRare, your post is a delight!
it made my day

(new) 5 Feb. cfitz passes BuddhaTB

???

...dodecahedron who is a night owl...

very good catch!!!

...the owls are not what they seem...

[cfitz]

Personally I think MediumRare has missed his true calling and is wasting his talents on physics. He has a great dry wit and literary flair. Check out some of his other threads as well.

cfitz

[MediumRare]

MediumRare, your post is a delight!
it made my day

(new) 5 Feb. cfitz passes BuddhaTB

???

...dodecahedron who is a night owl...

very good catch!!!

...the owls are not what they seem...

Neither are predictions. Time's arrow points to the future only in thermodynamics. There's nothing to keep me from making a "prediction" about things that happened in the past (only the "prediction" is new).

G

[TheWizard]

I'm on the chart. Cool

[cfitz]

For what it is worth (nothing really), this is the post... “March” gets the nod.

cfitz

[dodecahedron]

congrats!

[MediumRare]

For what it is worth (nothing really), this is the post... ?March? gets the nod.

cfitz

I feel honoured that you conciously picked this thread. We can leave this topic for a while until it gets hot again in August.

Incidentally- congratulations on 2600 (mostly) erudite and helpfull posts (as of this moment) !!

G

[cfitz]

Thanks dodecahedron and MediumRare. Hopefully my posts haven't just been bit-bucket fodder.

cfitz

[dodecahedron]

as this topic has been mentioned i've dropped by for a visit.

it is the end of August (nearly), and a good time to review the situation.
we see that not all predictions came about...

BuddhaTB has dropped out of the race, so it's not surprising he hasn't passed elim.
and the biggie: cfitz has not passed Ian!

and i haven't passed elim either.
though i have till October 2nd to do that, i don't think that will happen.
checking profiles, elim's current daily average is 5.25, mine has never passed 5 (so far anyway). oh well, i'm pretty comfortable where i am on the chart now anyways!

[MediumRare]

and i haven't passed elim either.
though i have till October 2nd to do that, i don't think that will happen.

Seeing as you asked...
The latest predictions (based on a modified and still secret* analysis to be disclosed later) are:

• 9 Feb. 2006 (!!!) cfitz passes Ian
• 26 Oct. dodecahedron passes eliminator
• 16 Sept. CowboySlim passes MediumRare

The (LiteOn)guy to watch though is CDRecorder who will pass
- Spazmogen, VEFF, jase and aviationwiz (the current 007)
before eliminator get caught.

G
*who hasn't had time to prepare a proper presentation this time round.

[aviationwiz]

I'll pass TheWizard soon, I haven't seen him post a lot lately.

[TheWizard]

Well, sorry for suddenly having a life!

BTW, I hope all these numbers don't get to your heads. Sure it's nice to be one of the top posters, but please don't develop a complex about it. That's one reason why I support not assigning rank titles based on how many posts you make. I'm glad there isn't a common rank title people can get above CD-RW Player. If there was, it would cause people to compete just to reach the higher level. I've seen it on other message boards; it's childish.

[Bhairav]

Very true,Wizard. It happens on a lot of other boards,and then the guys with a "higher" title go ragging on the guys with "lower" titles. Spoils the forum in question,IMO.

[cfitz]

9 Feb. 2006 (!!!) cfitz passes Ian

Don't count on it. I don't think I will ever pass Ian, and have no aspirations to do so. As TheWizard and bhairavp have pointed out, and as I know you also believe, post count is quite unimportant. I think that is why you decided to have fun with this thread in the first place.

I'm glad there isn't a common rank title people can get above CD-RW Player

Coincidentally, I just noticed that aviationwiz has a new custom title. Congrats, aviationwiz! And shame on you for contributing to this worst thread ever.

the guys with a "higher" title go ragging on the guys with "lower" titles

Did you happen to see in this forum a number of months back where hoxlund tried to claim he knows more about CD burning than Inertia because he has a higher post count?

cfitz

Who would have posted three messages, one each in reply to MediumRare, TheWizard and bhairavp if he really cared about post count. (Sorry for stepping on your trademark, CowboySlim )

[MediumRare]

I'll pass TheWizard soon, I haven't seen him post a lot lately.

Well if you have your heart set on this, I'm sure you'll find a way to get the posts. The present trend says 9 Jan 2005 however.

I want to present the basis for the main prediction made yesterday and then will leave this topic. It seems to be taking an unfortunate turn- this was meant to fun. I don't want to (involuntarily) feed a discussion that leads to bad blood.
---------------------------

Seeing as modern demographics didn't fare that well last time (the brinded cat hath mew'd once only) I consulted the stars and the classical scientific literature as a guide to further predictions.

If you look to the south during a clear night, you can see a red object brighter than anything else (other than the moon). This is Mars in opposition, dominant in the heavens at present. What does this tell us? According to Kepler (Mysterium Cosmographicum, 1596), the planets move on spheres separated by classical platonic solids. And the solid separating the spheres of Earth and Mars is (gasp) the dodecahedron. So this is the age of the dodecahedron and everybody else can pack their bag and go home.

However: there are 5 such solids, so there can only be 6 planets, which is (of course) in excellent agreement with current astrological data.

Oh well- back to linear extrapolation:



The previous predictions (shown as dashed lines) were excellent of course. Unfortuantely, the participants didn't behave as they should (which is often the case- unruly mob!), so I made new extrapolations based on least square fits to the last 30 data points (solid lines).

And those are the basis for my last prediction (here).

G

[cfitz]

I just checked, and apparently some time yesterday or today Inertia passed hoxlund in total post count (Inertia has two more post counts than hoxlund as I write this). Well hoxlund, I guess it's official now - you really do know nothing about CD burning in comparison to Inertia!