A stand alone recorder for Under $200?. soon.

Hmm I don't think so.
I think Ian is right that Black Friday probably will result in some players being sold at that pricing level.
In europe we are currently seeing some PC writers below the 200 euro price level.
Depending on how fast the market develops and how fast cheap chinese manufacturers jump on it. I would say that it still takes at least 2 years from now for a standalone recorder being priced below 200 usd/euro's.

Trying to make something "foolproof" only forces nature to make a better fool.