Top 10 Reasons why BluRay will fail

[dolphinius_rex]

I've seen a lot of people making comments about BluRay and HDDVD on a number of forums. At this point it seems pretty obvious that BluRay will fail, and HDDVD will succeed as the next gen format of choice. So I thought I would compile a nice comprehensive list of the reasons why BluRay will fail, just so they're all in one place, and people can easily refer back to them as needed. So without further ado, the list:

#10:
Popular Opinion. If you look all over the internet, everyone only talks about HDDVD and how much Sony sucks. All those people can't be wrong!!

#9:
The name. I mean, with HDDVD you know EXACTLY what you're getting. an HD DVD. And next year when DVD is no longer in as high demand, we can just abbreviate that to DVD, and no one will get confused because who would want DVD when you have an HD DVD available? And what the hell is a BLU RAY anyways? The discs don't even LOOK blue at all.

#8:
Movie Selection. HDDVD has the support of New Line Cinema, and Universal exclusively, and share support of Warner Brothers and Paramount with BluRay, but still have a lot more movie titles available so far for HDDVD then BluRay. The only thing Sony has going for them is Lionsgate, MGM, Fox and their own Sony distributed stuff.... but who the hell cares about THAT crap?

#7:
Codec Insecurity. HDDVD, although officially supporting MPEG2 and MPEG4, as well as the VC-1 codec, HDDVD only *actually* uses VC-1, in order to keep things streamlined. BluRay on the other hand keeps mixing things up! Initially the used the MPEG2 codec, and then they decided to copy HDDVD by moving to VC-1, and now there is even talk of future releases using the MPEG4 codec. Geez BluRay, make up your mind!!

#6:
The history of products from Sony. HDDVD is not supported by Sony, and therefore has pretty much already won the battle. BluRay, is just going to fall into the same category of so many other Sony products in the past. For instance, look at MiniDiscs, or DVD+R, both formats were introduced LONG after CD-R and DVD-R, and both formats are essentially failures that never managed to claim the majority of the consumer market. On top of that, DVD+R, like the DVD format in general (which Sony is also attached to!), is drastically inferior in terms of lifespan compared to that of the CD-R. Just look at all the complaints about recordable media having bonding problems. So why should we trust any Sony products?

#5:
Production Costs. HDDVD is built off of the existing DVD technology, so much so that it's capable to do simple upgrades of existing DVD manufacturing equipment so that it can manufacture HDDVD as well. BluRay however requires a complete overhaul, and new equipment to be purchased. Why Sony thought they needed to build BluRay's technology from the ground up is completely beyond me!

#4:
Componant shortage. BluRay just can't get it together on their componant end. It's obvious everywhere from Sony's BluRay player to their PS3, that they just can't get it together, even just in terms of forcasting. But you don't see that kind of problem from HDDVD!! The only reason you can't get HDDVD-ROM drives for the XBox 360 easily is because they are selling so fast! And the HDDVD-R burner on the market in Japan is dealing a crushing blow for sure!

#3:
The price difference between movies on BluRay and HDDVD. Take for instance Mission Impossible 3, which has been released on both formats. The HDDVD version sells on amazon.com for $27.87 USD, but the BluRay version costs a mind boggling $27.95. Seriously WTF?! I guess Sony hasn't learned about those crazy licensing fees yet!

#2:
Capacity. HDDVD offers *15GB* per layer.... that's about 2x as much as a double layer DVD, and a little more then 3x a single layer DVD. That's *HUGE* !!! Some people think they might need even more then that, like 25GB or something, but don't forget the words of a prominant leader from an HDDVD supporting company "640K of memory should be enough for anybody.''. While we know now that 640K is not enough anymore, that quote DOES remind us to not be greedy, and to learn to live with the limitations. And really, 15GB per layer should be enough for anybody. So why have 25GB per layer if you're just going to end up wasting 10GB of it in the end?

#1:
BluRay is Evil. I can't possibly put it better then the user DukeNukem from CDFreaks, so here is a direct quote:
"I know that $ony isn't the only one on the Blu-ray team, but people can be blinded by hate (and oh, how I hate). It's kind of like Hitler. If Hitler liked or supported something then it was automatically evil by association.

$ony (Hitler) + Blu-ray (abortion, euthanasia, etc.) = Evil !!!"

[dolphinius_rex]

If anyone would like to, this article was submitted to Digg.com:
http://digg.com/hardware/Top_10_Reasons ... _will_fail

[JamieW]

If I had to pick at this point after looking into the subject after a discussion with Ian, I'd say if BluRay fails, it will primarily be because of an incredible negative marketting campating put forth by those backing HD DVD and people not investigating the accusations but simply accepting them.

#10:
Popular opinion here may be the result of people accepting information without looking into it. If this is the case, then popular opinion should be ashamed of itself.

#9:
Anyone in the market will have no confusion.

#8:
Movie selection could be an issue, but I don't know how heavily it is in HD DVDs favor right now.

#7:
Technical mumbo-jumbo. I'll leave this to the nerds to confirm or deny.

#6:
I agree that SONY controlled formats ended up losing. But seriously, minidisc didn't suck, nor did betamax. They were fine products that Sony greeded themselves into failure. Does anyone use a memory stick? But let's not call Sony technically incapable of developing new technologies. You can say a lot of things about my mom (and be right), but you can't say she can't cook. This isn't a Sony controlled format. Sony is one of the names that negative marketting campaigns are throwing at us hoping we think the way that you have stated. Well, we're falling for it and we're idiots for doing so.

#5:
As I understand it, this isn't the case, but I may be wrong so I will categorize it as "technical mumbo-jumbo" and again smoke signal the nerds.

#4:
To be fair, there's a complete shortage (as in they don't exist) of HD DVD writers while BluRay writers are here.

#3:
This really could be for a variety of reasons that are not Sony's fault. The distributor for the BluRay could have agreements with Amazon that the distributor for HD DVD doesn't have. I mean, I could go on. But we've really no evidence that there's some flaw with BluRay on this.

#2:
My understanding of this is that BluRay has an edge in capacity. Again, technical mumbo-jumbo. Nerds, save me.

#1:
Well, DukeNukem can blow me. Why can DukeNukem blow me? This isn't a Sony only thing, Sony is just one of the companies on board the BluRay train but the HD DVD propaganda machine has us fixated on Sony's involvement like if we buy BluRay then we're funding the Sony terrorism machine. I hate Sony's customer service with a passion, and if I went BluRay, I'd get one of the brands other than Sony. Sony Ericsson cell phones use Li Ion battery technology, did that stop you from buying a cell phone? If we're going to not use BluRay because it is a technology that Sony uses, let's be consistent and stop buying any technology that Sony uses no matter who is manufacturing it.

That is why DukeNukem can blow me. Because he didn't do this, instead he did the easy thing which was take a soft stance against something that isn't moving against him like he's making a goddam difference in the world. Please do the hard thing and rise out of the propaganda. THAT is the thing that is moving against you. It doesn't have your interest in mind. If you choose HD DVD after that, then so be it.

[Ian]

#4:
Componant shortage. BluRay just can't get it together on their componant end. It's obvious everywhere from Sony's BluRay player to their PS3, that they just can't get it together, even just in terms of forcasting. But you don't see that kind of problem from HDDVD!! The only reason you can't get HDDVD-ROM drives for the XBox 360 easily is because they are selling so fast! And the HDDVD-R burner on the market in Japan is dealing a crushing blow for sure!

It's not that they can't get their act together. Pick up head manufacturers can't meet the demand necessary to manufacture the PS3 in the quantities desired.

The Xbox drive is popular but I doubt sales are even close to that of the PS3.

For those that think Blu-ray is solely a Sony thing, there are a number of other companies on the Blu-ray Disc Association's board of directors:

http://www.blu-raydisc.com/general_info ... Index.html

[vinnie97]

lol, dolphinius...last I checked you were a Blu-Ray supporter. Are you just posting this article for laughs? (I do think some of the points raised are good...with the #1 being the most idiotic, though I'm no fan of Sony and their incessant hype and lies).

[dolphinius_rex]

lol, dolphinius...last I checked you were a Blu-Ray supporter. Are you just posting this article for laughs? (I do think some of the points raised are good...with the #1 being the most idiotic, though I'm no fan of Sony and their incessant hype and lies).

Hooray!

I was starting to fear that everyone would actually take that list seriously. My initial thought was, I wonder if I can make a top 10 list of reasons why BluRay will fail, based entirely on common postings by forums users on the net, which are largely false or based on mis-information to some extent. I'll admit some of them DID scratch the realm of reason a little close, but in general the reasons were pretty much garbage.

But I suppose I should explain it

#10:
Popular Opinion. If you look all over the internet, everyone only talks about HDDVD and how much Sony sucks. All those people can't be wrong!!

This is NEVER a legitimate reason... especially this early on in a format battle. BluRay hasn't even gotten into full swing yet (and neither had HDDVD entirely).

#9:
The name. I mean, with HDDVD you know EXACTLY what you're getting. an HD DVD. And next year when DVD is no longer in as high demand, we can just abbreviate that to DVD, and no one will get confused because who would want DVD when you have an HD DVD available? And what the hell is a BLU RAY anyways? The discs don't even LOOK blue at all.

This is a joke based on the fact that internally some places are having to abbreviate HDDVD to DVD in their systems already (if they aren't very flexible), and realistically the problem is a real possability. In my opinion BluRay is a much cooler name, and makes more sense. Some people have even sworn to me up and down that HDDVD uses red lasers, and that's why it's so easy to manufacture... oy!

#8:
Movie Selection. HDDVD has the support of New Line Cinema, and Universal exclusively, and share support of Warner Brothers and Paramount with BluRay, but still have a lot more movie titles available so far for HDDVD then BluRay. The only thing Sony has going for them is Lionsgate, MGM, Fox and their own Sony distributed stuff.... but who the hell cares about THAT crap?

Really, I thought this one was obvious. Sony has way more studio support, and more exclusive film companies. Yes HDDVD has more titles currently, but this is quite likely to change after Christmas, as more and more people have HDTV's and start turning to BluRay and HDDVD movies/TV Shows for nice looking content.

#7:
Codec Insecurity. HDDVD, although officially supporting MPEG2 and MPEG4, as well as the VC-1 codec, HDDVD only *actually* uses VC-1, in order to keep things streamlined. BluRay on the other hand keeps mixing things up! Initially the used the MPEG2 codec, and then they decided to copy HDDVD by moving to VC-1, and now there is even talk of future releases using the MPEG4 codec. Geez BluRay, make up your mind!!

Streamlineing? Codec Insecurity? Man, I could barely keep the laughter in while writing this one. Yes, BluRay screwed up initially by using MPEG2, but all there newer releases are VC-1, and MPEG4 is around the corner. This will give them equal or greater visual quality to HDDVD, unless for some reason they screw up the encoding or decoding process, but by the numbers, and because the compression is the same, it should be at LEAST as good (or better because of higher maximum bitrate).

#6:
The history of products from Sony. HDDVD is not supported by Sony, and therefore has pretty much already won the battle. BluRay, is just going to fall into the same category of so many other Sony products in the past. For instance, look at MiniDiscs, or DVD+R, both formats were introduced LONG after CD-R and DVD-R, and both formats are essentially failures that never managed to claim the majority of the consumer market. On top of that, DVD+R, like the DVD format in general (which Sony is also attached to!), is drastically inferior in terms of lifespan compared to that of the CD-R. Just look at all the complaints about recordable media having bonding problems. So why should we trust any Sony products?

Yeah, I know a lot of people could buy into this one... but I was hoping more people on CDRlabs would be familiar with the huge success MiniDisc met with in Japan. Even North America still turned a profit as far as I'm aware. Betamax became the backbone to many other film formats pioneered by Sony which still fuel the film industry today. CD-R and DVD+R are still going strong also. Sony doesn't have THAT many actual format failures, and their successes are some of the best technological achievements ever. I may not like the company much, but their technology itself is not bad, and I'd hate to see them quit making new stuff.

#5:
Production Costs. HDDVD is built off of the existing DVD technology, so much so that it's capable to do simple upgrades of existing DVD manufacturing equipment so that it can manufacture HDDVD as well. BluRay however requires a complete overhaul, and new equipment to be purchased. Why Sony thought they needed to build BluRay's technology from the ground up is completely beyond me!

I put this SPECIFICALLY under the last reason, because I mentioned a lot of the flaws in DVD technology, specifically the bonding issues inherint in the technology. One of the reasons BluRay makes so much more sense is because they actually went back more to how CD-Rs were made in some respects, and in the end, the product should be a lot more stable then HDDVD or regular DVD. I'm sure many people on CDRlabs have already noticed how crappy the lifespan is on DVDs compared to CDs.

#4:
Componant shortage. BluRay just can't get it together on their componant end. It's obvious everywhere from Sony's BluRay player to their PS3, that they just can't get it together, even just in terms of forcasting. But you don't see that kind of problem from HDDVD!! The only reason you can't get HDDVD-ROM drives for the XBox 360 easily is because they are selling so fast! And the HDDVD-R burner on the market in Japan is dealing a crushing blow for sure!

Hrm... doesn't the componant shortage affect HDDVD too?

#3:
The price difference between movies on BluRay and HDDVD. Take for instance Mission Impossible 3, which has been released on both formats. The HDDVD version sells on amazon.com for $27.87 USD, but the BluRay version costs a mind boggling $27.95. Seriously WTF?! I guess Sony hasn't learned about those crazy licensing fees yet!

Common.... 8 f'ing cents. And I didn't go looking specifically for a movie with a small difference either. I just asked Aviationwiz out of the blue for a movie title that was released on HDDVD and BluRay and compared the amazon.com prices for them. But I really hope nobody takes this one too seriously, because if anything, I think it proves that most of the price difference talk is BS.

#2:
Capacity. HDDVD offers *15GB* per layer.... that's about 2x as much as a double layer DVD, and a little more then 3x a single layer DVD. That's *HUGE* !!! Some people think they might need even more then that, like 25GB or something, but don't forget the words of a prominant leader from an HDDVD supporting company "640K of memory should be enough for anybody.''. While we know now that 640K is not enough anymore, that quote DOES remind us to not be greedy, and to learn to live with the limitations. And really, 15GB per layer should be enough for anybody. So why have 25GB per layer if you're just going to end up wasting 10GB of it in the end?

I figured this one would give away my intent for sure... How anyone could think I was being serious quoting Bill Gates' 640k comment is beyond me. 15GB is not enough. 30GB on a HDDVDDL will be ok for movies probably, as long as there aren't a huge amount of special features, but for datastorage it's going to suck still.

#1:
BluRay is Evil. I can't possibly put it better then the user DukeNukem from CDFreaks, so here is a direct quote:
"I know that $ony isn't the only one on the Blu-ray team, but people can be blinded by hate (and oh, how I hate). It's kind of like Hitler. If Hitler liked or supported something then it was automatically evil by association.

$ony (Hitler) + Blu-ray (abortion, euthanasia, etc.) = Evil !!!"

I shouldn't even have to say anything for this one. I left it for #1 because I thought it was just a dead giveaway.

Anyways, my experiment to see if I could pull off convincing people all this BS was true appears to be a success. I hope people can still have a good laugh at it... I know a had plenty of them putting it together

[SkaarjMaster]

I was reading this and wondering WTF the whole time; although, not knowing much about either I wasn't completely sure until the cat was out of the bag. What got me wondering was what was said about DVD+R. Why would everyone here recommend them if they suck?;)

[dolphinius_rex]

I was reading this and wondering WTF the whole time; although, not knowing much about either I wasn't completely sure until the cat was out of the bag. What got me wondering was what was said about DVD+R. Why would everyone here recommend them if they suck?;)

DVD+R is a funny one for me... I know it performs slightly better then DVD-R often, but I almost never used it until just recently. Mainly because I have a huge stock of DVD media, and the DVD+R stock is just huge compared to the DVD-R stock... but I think it's fair to say I'm slowly converting to DVD+R finally.

[vinnie97]

MD may not have caught on in North America but that doesn't keep it from being a quality format (perhaps the best for field/on-the-fly recording and quick editing)...especially now with higher capacity and less restrictions from Sony along with better interfacing with a computer.

Ipod whores wouldn't understand this, though.

[dolphinius_rex]

That's probably one of the biggest problems with Sony... their technology is usually very very good! But that alone is not enough unfortunately.

[Ian]

You guys are forgetting about one of Sony's biggest failures in recent years... the UMD format.

[dolphinius_rex]

You guys are forgetting about one of Sony's biggest failures in recent years... the UMD format.

Not forgetting, just trying to ignore

The UMD is an aweful format, that really never should have been made. But for some reason it did REALLY well initially, and then the whole thing fell apart and crashed. Personally, I think the PSP itself was a bad idea.

[SkaarjMaster]

DVD+R is a funny one for me... I know it performs slightly better then DVD-R often, but I almost never used it until just recently. Mainly because I have a huge stock of DVD media, and the DVD+R stock is just huge compared to the DVD-R stock... but I think it's fair to say I'm slowly converting to DVD+R finally.

I'm using DVD-R for single layer and DVD+R for dual layer. I'll see what's up again once I run out of those single layer discs.

[dolphinius_rex]

well, DVD-RDL is so painful to use I'm surprised anyone buys them at all... but apparently there is a market for them in Japan. But if you compare DVD-RDL to MiniDisc, the markets in North America and Europe were much bigger for MiniDisc then DVD-RDL will likely ever get.

[vinnie97]

Regardless of this top 10, the reality is playing out here: http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

HD-DVD continues to dominate in most categories. That may change but the PS3 is really the only thing that can change momentum as far as I can tell and since consoles over $400 have never gone on to be great successes in North America and price drops until 2008 are highly unlikely (how much MORE $ can Sony afford to lose?), I just don't think the situation is looking very rosy here for Blu-Ray. Until HDTVs become more widely adopted, momentum for either format won't happen but if things continue in the direction they are currently, Blu-Ray doesn't have a chance in the movie-viewing world. I suppose data buffs could change that to an extent.

[JamieW]

"Most categories" appears to be only the home movie competition. Good thing we didn't throw VHS in that list because VHS sales history would dominate both of those and we could therefore project VHS as the winner. Let alone DVD sales, which will still completely stomp either. The simple truth of this is that HD DVD penetration in the home movie market may be greater, it isn't wide acceptance and it is still way too early to call.

[vinnie97]

yep, HDTV adoption needs to increase before a winner can be declared and that will still take several more years. In the meantime, I'm going to call them both losers thanks to DVD's continued dominance.

[dolphinius_rex]

Well, looking at the sales now, and thinking about the future, I am reminded of looking at DVD+R and DVD-R back when DVD+R was just coming out. DVD+R was more expensive (except in Europe) and less supported, and a year behind... the only thing it had going for it was that it was faster, and the re-writable format was much much better. Things seem to be very similar with BluRay and HDDVD, except that BluRay has a lot more advantages then DVD+R did. It has a greater capacity, greater movie studio support (but less actual releases currently), it has a much much better re-writable format (mostly because HDDVD-RW doesn't exist currently), and like DVD+R vs. DVD-R, it's much MUCH faster then HDDVD-R is currently.

So I would say that we need to watch this coming year (2007) very closely. I would NOT be surprised if we saw a replay of the DVD+R success story... but I also wouldn't be surprised if the Sony haters effectively destroy BluRay as a movie format. Either way, it should be a fun battle to watch. Of course, I have and will continue to buy into BluRay as an early adopter

[dodecahedron]

I would NOT be surprised if we saw a replay of the DVD+R success story.

yes, another success... a stalemate in a year or so.
some success...

[dolphinius_rex]

I would NOT be surprised if we saw a replay of the DVD+R success story.

yes, another success... a stalemate in a year or so.
some success...

Only a stalemate if you don't consider DVD+RDL

[RJW]

You guys are forgetting about one of Sony's biggest failures in recent years... the UMD format.

Not forgetting, just trying to ignore

The UMD is an aweful format, that really never should have been made. But for some reason it did REALLY well initially, and then the whole thing fell apart and crashed. Personally, I think the PSP itself was a bad idea.

UMD was on paper not a awewful format.

Sturdy
relative large capacity
Cheap
small

So enough reasons to use it.

So why did it fail and has it a terrible reputation then ?

-To slow - Incase of games sometimes loading times are to long.

-Memory chips are dropping much faster in price as the whole industry expected.

-THe movie fiasco. THe UMD as movie format in the current situation is a fiasco, because sony was to greedy. People are not going to buy something that is more expensive as DVD and comes with more limitations and less extra's. Specially if they can just convert there dvd's and put it on the memory stick and play it.
The reason that it worked initially. Were the relative high prices of memory and the fact that it was something new.
Now if Sony(and other studio's) just would suply a UMD at cost level with there DVD movies then I think it wouldn't have gotten a bad name as the format has now.

So I think that explains the whole UMD thingie.
It ain't a bad format on it's own it's only the way how they worked things out in the end.